Hunt to face BBC questions after Budget that cut National Insurance

Barbara Tasch

Live reporter

The last two days have been busy. We had the Budget itself,
all the reaction, and the many workings out over how these changes will affect
you and your finances.

But it was the politics that were front and centre, with the
general election looming large.

The cuts to tax paid by workers were hailed by some as
election-year goodies, while others thought the relatively small number of
measures hinted at more to come.

Indeed, an optimistic Jeremy Hunt said this year’s Budget was all part of a long-term
plan. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer said it was the Tory government’s “last desperate
act”, with people paying “more and more for less and less”.

Thanks for joining and for reaching out with all your questions. For more in-depth coverage, you can find loads of explainers, analysis and reaction to the Budget here.

Today’s page was edited by Nathan Williams, Sam Hancock, Owen
Amos and Emily Atkinson. The writers were Jacqueline Howard, Thomas Mackintosh,
Jake Lapham, Ali Abbas Ahmadi, Malu Cursino and me.

We’ve just been through all of the key parts of yesterday’s Budget. Now for quick a round up of the reaction from politicians and financial experts across today:

• During a visit to Liverpool, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt insisted the government’s latest tax and spending plans would make a difference – telling BBC Breakfast that his policies were part of a long-term plan
• But Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the Budget was an “omnishambles” , accusing the government of “giving with one hand and taking twice as much with the other”

• On a visit to a pub in Yorkshire, the prime minister said the Budget – including the 2p cut to National Insurance – showed the government plan to bring down debt and inflation was working
• Pressed by reporters, Rishi Sunak refused to give any more specifics on a date for a general election
• Elsewhere, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) – a think tank – called Wednesday’s tax cuts genuinely substantial
• But it added that just to stop national debt rising, the government needs to raise more than it spends – which it hasn’t done since 2001
• And the Resolution Foundation – another think tank – maintained that pensioners would be worse off as they do not benefit from the NI cut
• It said the cut will lead to the Treasury collecting £9bn less in tax ahead of the election

BBC Verify

Gerry Georgieva

Earlier on, we fact-checked Rachel Reeves’ claim that government borrowing was going up.

Let’s take a look now at Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s assertion on BBC Radio 2 that “overall debt is forecast to fall next year”.

The total amount of money the government owes is called the
national debt.

There are two main ways of measuring it: “underlying debt”
and “net debt”. However, regardless of which measure is used, the PM’s claim is
incorrect.

“Underlying debt” excludes
debt incurred by the Bank of England’s activities, which the government doesn’t
have direct control over.

Underlying debt is forecast to increase from 88.8% of
GDP this year to 91.7% in 2024-25. Net debt is
also due to rise, from 97.6% of GDP this year to 98.8% next year.

Net debt will start falling after 2024-25 but
underlying debt – the measure that the government itself picked as the one that
reflects its policy decisions better – won’t fall until 2027-28.

Time now to look back at all the key developments from the last two days. To get the ball rolling, here’s a recap of the major announcements from yesterday’s Budget:

• National Insurance was cut by another 2p, from 10% to 8%, for workers – having already fallen by 2p in last year’s Autumn Statement
• The chancellor said the cut, to begin next month, is worth £450 a year for the average worker

• But the salary
  thresholds at which people start paying income tax and NI remain frozen, which
  means people will pay more tax as their incomes rise – a process known as fiscal
  drag

• Elsewhere, the Household Support Fund, for families in England struggling with the cost of living crisis, was extended for another six months, falling short of charities’ hopes of a two-year extension
• And the earnings threshold for child benefit was raised to £60,000, from £50,000

• Hunt introduced a new tax on vaping products and froze alcohol duty until February 2025

• The VAT threshold
  for small businesses was increased from £85,000 to £90,000
• A new tax-free Individual Savings Account (Isa) was made available to savers – the money invested will be directed to British businesses
• And the non-dom tax break, claimed by wealthy foreign residents in the UK, was replaced with new rules

The theatre of Budget day may have allowed Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to set the stage for an election, by announcing major tax and spending plans.

But it’s the finer details of his script that could have a significant impact on your finances.

To better understand how the Budget will affect you and your money, check out our handy explainer.

BBC Verify

Gerry Georgieva

We’re closing this page soon. But before we go, a quick look at something from this morning.

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves told BBC Breakfast that “government borrowing is going up, under the numbers published
yesterday, in every year of the forecast”.

However, the official independent forecaster’s figures say
otherwise.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says the
government’s main measure of borrowing is expected to reduce by two-thirds over
the next five years.

It is projected to fall from £114.1bn this year to £39.4bn
in 2028-29 – well below pre-pandemic levels.

While the OBR has revised up
borrowing from 2024-25 onwards, compared with its November forecast, it is
still projected to fall each financial year.

One of the government key fiscal targets was for borrowing
to fall to below 3% as a share of the economy in five years’ time. According to
the OBR, the government is currently on track.

Our final question comes from Gregory in Sheffield, who asks: Is it looking like we are heading to Austerity 2.0, due to everything that will be cut to fund the National Insurance cut?

The government says that overall public spending is due to increase
by 1% over the next Parliament.

But some services, such as the NHS and defence, are set to get much
bigger increases.

That means other “unprotected” departments would have to reduce
their spending as a result – so smaller budgets for things like councils,
courts, universities and social care.

Leading economic think tank the Institute for Fiscal Studies has
calculated that unprotected departments could face day-to-day cuts of up to
£20bn between 2024-25 and 2028-29.

While the Resolution Foundation, a think tank that focuses on
people on lower incomes, says the planned cuts amount to a fall in budgets of
13%.

They say this is equivalent to cuts of £19 billion and amounts to a plan
to repeat almost three-quarters of the cuts that these departments went through
between 2010 and 2015 (the original “austerity” period).

The Resolution Foundation says the idea that departments can reduce expenditure on this scale
is “a fiction” – but the government claims that improving productivity would
help to bring spending down.

How to deliver public services under the current spending plans
will certainly be a challenge for whoever wins the next election.

Allan in East Sussex asks: Why can’t the government do a
staggered percentage, where the more you earn, the more you pay – rather than a one-shoe-fits-all approach?

The tax system in this country is progressive – as your
income increases, the tax you pay goes up.

For example, you don’t pay anything on annual income up to
£12,570. But then you pay income tax of 20% of what is earned above that, until
you get to a 40% higher tax band, and eventually an additional tax band of 45%.

Remember, these so-called thresholds have been frozen so, as
you get a pay rise, a greater proportion of your income is taxed.

Importantly, different income tax bands apply in Scotland – although National Insurance is UK-wide.

Keith asks: I would like to know when the National Insurance became a
tax?

National Insurance contributions originated as way to fund
benefits such as the state pension.

In reality, NI walks like a tax and talks like a tax. That’s
why people refer to it as a tax.

The point here is that it forms part of a government’s
income which it then uses to fund various services.

So – as we said earlier – if National Insurance
contributions were abolished, the state pension would still exist.

Here’s a similar question to David’s from earlier – Les in Hertfordshire asks: Why hasn’t the chancellor raised the personal tax allowance? I worked hard
to get a good salary and paid my income tax, now I am taxed on my pension.

That’s a question for the chancellor, Les!

Tax thresholds have
been frozen since 2021, and are still due to remain so until the end of 2027-28.

That means any kind of
income rise could drag you into a higher tax bracket, or will see a greater
proportion of your income taxed than would otherwise be expected.

Normally, those thresholds
are expected to rise in line with prices – so, as we said earlier, economists point out this has
been the equivalent of £40bn tax rise.

Peter asks:  I would like to know how
accurate forecasts have been in recent Budgets?

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – the official
forecaster – isn’t particularly better or worse than others at predicting
growth in the economy.

But it has been
a little over-optimistic about the government finances. That’s because, as this IFS report says, governments tend to spend any extra money that it
receives, such as additional tax revenues.

We wrote a
little more about the forecasters’ track record here – and the
OBR regularly reports its own forecasts here.

Elizabeth G asks: What is
going to happen to the state pension if no National Insurance contributions
from workers are being made? If National Insurance is abolished, how do people then qualify? (NB: Both Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt have discussed an ambition to – at some point – get rid of National Insurance completely.)

You need a minimum of 10 years of NI contributions, or
credits, to qualify for the new state pension.

To qualify for the full
amount, you need 35 years of contributions. You can check your record online.

If employees’ NI contributions are eventually abolished,
then a new qualification regime would be needed – perhaps via HM Revenue
and Customs.

The state pension would still be paid (funded by general taxation), but the administrative workings under the bonnet would change.

But scrapping NI is still only a government ambition. In reality, any such achievement remains many years off.

Andrew asks: Why are so many people
determined to give the government ever more money? When has a government EVER
given value for the billions it takes from us?

The question of how big the state should be is one that strikes at
the heart of politics.

Traditionally Conservatives believe in lowering the amount of money
that the government takes from taxpayers – but this Parliament has been an
exception to that rule.

That’s partly because of the pandemic, which led to a fall in tax
revenue and record-breaking increase in government spending, according to the
Institute of Fiscal Studies.

Whoever is in power has to work out how to pay the interest on
that borrowing – as well as paying for public services – at a time when they
know many people would prefer not to be handing over more in tax.

Carrie asks: So the vape tax is not going up
until October 2026. Why not this year?

The new
duty on vaping, as Carrie says, is not immediate. The government says it will
raise £120m in its first year, rising to £445m in 2028-9.

The
process starts with a 12-week consultation, which the government would then
need to respond to before deciding on the final details. All that takes time.

A
wider, key point is that not everything announced in the Budget takes effect
immediately – which is why we take a close look at the paperwork published
after the chancellor’s speech.

After the recent question about winners and losers, Sue asks: Why is it that the low
earners are worse off?

Low earners are worse off due
to the tax threshold freeze, which has a big effect on the first few thousand
pounds on which you pay tax.

The cut in National Insurance, however, has a smaller effect on the first £40,000 on which you pay tax.

Let’s see how those two effects
play out.

Someone earning £16,000 would
be about £500 a year worse off due to the threshold freeze. And so would
everyone earning up to about £50,000.

The NI cut saves the lower
earner about £100. But it saves our higher earner £1,500 a year.

So cut to NI doesn’t make up
for the extra tax being paid on the first few thousand pounds above the lower
tax threshold.

And so our lower earner is
worse off. But if you’re earning a lot
more than that you work out better off.

Following on from our last question, David asks: Will the chancellor will raise
the personal tax allowance?

The personal allowance is the amount of money you can earn before
any tax starts to be paid. For most people, it is currently set at £12,570.

The government isn’t intending to increase the personal allowance.
Along with other tax thresholds it has been frozen until 2028.

This means that more people start paying tax and National Insurance
as their wages increase. The Office for Budget Responsibility believes this
will create 3.2 million additional taxpayers by 2028.

It’s worth adding that your personal allowance is smaller if you earn
over £100,000 – and bigger if you get marriage allowance or blind person’s allowance.

An anonymous reader (please include your names!) asks: How do you calculate
personal gain/loss from the Budget? Do you include a “cost” for not raising tax
thresholds?

Yes. When analysing the Budget,
the freezing of thresholds is treated as a cost because they reduce your
standard of living.

Let’s say you earnt £12,500
last year. You didn’t need to pay any tax
on that.

If you get a salary increase
this year that just about keeps pace with rising prices, your living standard
is exactly the same, even though your paycheque is bigger.

The trouble is your pay rise
now puts you over the top for tax-free earnings – you’re going to have to start
paying taxes.

And so your take-home pay has
not kept pace with rising prices. You’re worse off.

The government used to move the
point at which you started paying tax to prevent this from happening. But they haven’t done that for
three years.

Official forecasters call it a
tax rise, as do independent economists. And it’s set to raise them more
than £40bn by 2028.  

Len asks: We have had two cuts to the rate of National
Insurance, which is good for the workers on the receiving end. But I would like
to know how this effects contributions to the NHS and pensions?

The money from National Insurance isn’t actually earmarked
for certain purposes – rather, it goes into the
general “pot” of money the government uses to fund services.

A reduction in the rate doesn’t impact your eligibility for NHS services or
pensions. It is effectively, for employees and the self-employed, another form
of tax on income.

But it’s worth remembering that it is one of the biggest
money earners for government – that 2p cut in rates means the Treasury will
ultimately forego around £11bn a year, and that could affect some of the government’s
spending plans.

However, the budget for health is ringfenced, or protected, so
a fall in the tax take won’t impact that.

Elizabeth A asks: Why does the
Office for Budget Responsibility, according to the chancellor, say that the 2% cut in employee National Insurance will
lead to an increase of 200,000 people in work? 

I’m so happy Elizabeth asked
this question! The answer is nerdy – but I think really interesting.

The OBR believe, on balance,
cutting National Insurance will encourage people to work more hours or take new jobs.

And when you add both those effects
together you get about 200,000 full-time workers’ worth of extra hours
worked.

When cutting tax, some people
might choose to work less because they get the same take-home pay for fewer hours.

Others, however, might choose
to work longer hours or get a new job because take-home pay is suddenly worth
more.

The OBR believes the second
effect is stronger, therefore increasing the incentive to work. You can read its workings
here.

Robbie asks: What does non-dom mean? (NB: Jeremy Hunt said yesterday he’s abolishing the non-dom system)

The phrase “non-dom” describes a UK resident whose permanent home
(their “domicile”) for tax purposes is outside the UK.

At the moment, a non-dom only pays UK tax on the money they earn in
the UK.

They do not have to pay tax to the UK government on money made
elsewhere in the world (unless they pay that money into a UK bank account).

Changes announced in the Budget mean, that from April 2025, people
who move to the UK will not have to pay tax on money they earn overseas for the
first four years.

After that period, if they continue to live in the UK, they will
pay the same tax as everyone else.

The government is still consulting on the finer details of this
policy.