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Thursday, September 19, 2024

England’s expected starting XI for the Euro 2024 is going to be far wearier than Spain’s

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A lot of players in a lot of teams have looked pretty weary in Germany this summer. None more so than England, who have nevertheless managed to drag themselves to the final.

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But they have looked far more tired than a Spain side full of youthful vim and vigour. And a quick glance at the total minutes played this summer by the two expected starting XIs is really quite stark…

England predicted starting XI v Spain

Jordan Pickford (600 minutes)
Mr Never Lets England Down has once again Not Let England Down while adding another layer of sheen to his penalty shoot-out reputation.

Kyle Walker (600 minutes)
Still very quick, still trusted entirely and innately by Gareth Southgate when major tournament time comes around. Whether at right-back or right centre-back, Walker is an absolute staple of England in major tournaments under this regime. Impossible to imagine it any other way, even if we surely soon must.

John Stones (600 minutes)
Quietly having an excellent tournament in Germany having been short of football coming on. On which basis we can’t really grumble too much about him now being tired having been so concerned he was undercooked a month ago. Has to balance out, surely? He should be in ideal fettle.

Marc Guehi (480 minutes)
Got himself a rest against Switzerland after a second yellow card of the tournament against Slovakia. In ‘everything turning out okay in the end’ fashion, a smart decision from a man who has been pleasingly excellent for England here.

Bukayo Saka (546 minutes)
That’s very nearly 10 minutes of rest per match, on average, so that’s far more than the poor overworked bastard is generally used to with either club or country.

Declan Rice (600 minutes)
Really did look quite tired against the Netherlands. Still, the good news is that there’s nothing about Spain’s midfield to suggest he’s going to be really, really busy on Sunday night.

Kobbie Mainoo (301 minutes)
There are some advantages to Southgate taking quite so long to see what was right in front of his nose.

Kieran Trippier (453 minutes)
Reports suggest Trippier will start again in the final, and if he makes it to half-time before Southgate presses the Luke Shaw button then things are probably going just about okay for England. Does add significant minutes to the starting XI, though.

Jude Bellingham (581 minutes)
Got a whole four minutes off in the opening win against Serbia, which feels about 470 years ago now, and then sat out the second half of extra-time against Slovakia as England opted – just about successfully – to sit on what they rather fortuitously had at that point of a night that really could have gone down in England infamy before Bellingham got so ludicrously involved as the clock ticked down.

Phil Foden (533 minutes)
Gareth Southgate still might not be entirely sure how to get the very best out of Foden, but he’s certainly not about to give up trying. Started every game, withdrawn late on in three of them. The late changes to get Trent Alexander-Arnold on with five minutes left against Switzerland and Cole Palmer with 10 minutes remaining against Netherlands certainly paid off.

Harry Kane (545 minutes)
The fact Kane has twice been removed with penalty shoot-outs a very live possibility tells you a) England now have lots of very good penalty takers and b) Kane definitely isn’t fully fit. By the time he was removed against both Switzerland and Netherlands he could barely run and he has been operating way below his best throughout the tournament. The fact that despite this nobody has scored more goals than him in this tournament says plenty.

Total minutes: 5839 (531 minutes per player)

Spain predicted starting XI v England

Unai Simon (480 minutes)
The best No. 23 in the game and one of the very many Spain players to benefit from sitting out the final group game with top spot already secured.

Dani Carvajal (381 minutes)
The Real Madrid man bagged himself a cheeky double rest, sitting out the moot final group game against Albania and the semi-final against France after getting himself sent off against France. Also came off nine minutes from the end of the last-16 game with Georgia.

Robin Le Normand (360 minutes)
Suspended for the semi-final after a couple of yellows, retains his neat overall minutes having played the first half of the quarter-final against Germany and the second half of the group game that time forgot against Albania.

Aymeric Laporte (435 minutes)
On the bench for the opening game of Spain’s tournament against Croatia but has missed only one half of the Albania game since then, while also avoiding any of that card unpleasantness that has dogged his fellow defenders.

Marc Cucurella (456 minutes)
His form has been one of the stories of the tournament in Germany and even the minutes he’s missed this tournament show just how important he has become to Spain. Sat out the Albania game with so many other key starters before being withdrawn three-quarters of the way through the win over Georgia in the last 16.

Rodri (476 minutes)
As ever, the Man City maestro was a step ahead of his peers. While most of his first-choice compatriots were rested for the dead rubber against Albania, Rodri made sure he would have no involvement in the game by getting booked in both Spain’s first two games. Hasn’t missed a minute since then, obviously, but has picked up another booking, also obviously.

Despite serving a ban, Rodri has still racked up more game time than any other Spain outfielder, but less than eight of England’s.

Fabian Ruiz (453 minutes)
Standard first-choice Spain player fare here as well. Sat out the Albania game, withdrawn late on a couple of times.

Lamine Yamal (419 minutes)
The boy wonder is now a 17-year-old veteran. Who knows what diminishing impact his advancing age will have on him during the final? They even made him play a bit of the Albania game, on the not unreasonable basis that 16-year-olds don’t really get tired. How England cope with him – or more likely don’t – is going to be a huge part of this final.

Dani Olmo (341 minutes)
The tournament’s joint-leading scorer has only actually started two games – and one of those was the Albania game where Spain left their big guns out. Having scored in every knockout round – and with Pedri injured – Olmo has now become one of those big guns. Won’t win the Golden Boot, though. Kane scoring a meaningless consolation to cut England’s deficit on 80 minutes to win that prize but not the big one is just too on-brand not to happen.

Nico Williams (406 minutes)
Both Spain’s wingers have had birthdays since the semi-finals. While Yamal is now a wily old 17-year-old, Williams is a positively decrepit 22. How on earth will he cope with the ravaging effects of age and those 400+ minutes in his very old legs? Must have lost half-a-yard, you’d think.

Alvaro Morata (385 minutes)
Fit for the final despite picking up what looked like being one of the all-time unlucky injuries when sent flying during the post-semi-final celebrations. His place in Spain’s starting line-up remains controversial to some but is undisputed within the group. He’s started every game in Germany bar the Albania freebie, and even came off the bench in that.

That is also the only game he’s finished during this tournament, though.

Total minutes: 4592 minutes (417 minutes per player)

So there it is. England’s likely starting XI in Berlin has played 1247 more minutes during this tournament than Spain’s. It amounts, on average, to an entire extra match plus a good chunk of an extra-time per man.

Which makes sense when you think about it. England have had two extra-times compared to Spain’s one, and unlike Spain passed up the opportunity to wrap up top spot in their group with a game to spare and with it the opportunity to rest key players.

Both teams managed to get through their semi-final without extra-time, although neither exactly had any opportunity to take things easy. Spain’s extra day of rest since those games could also be another factor, though. The last three European Championship finals have all been won by the winners of the first semi-final.

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