Sizing up Canada’s Stanley Cup contenders

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Connor McDavid’s overtime goal to beat the United States in the 4 Nations Face-Off final last week was the best Canadian men’s hockey moment of the last 15 years. Could Canada’s first Stanley Cup parade since 1993 be next?

The chances aren’t terrible, with three Canadian-based NHL teams currently ranked in the top seven overall, two more holding a playoff spot and another very much in the hunt for the post-season. One betting site has the implied probability of a Canadian team winning the Cup at around 29 per cent, while the seven clubs’ title odds on the hockey-stats website Money Puck add up to about 25 per cent.

Here’s a quick check-in on the seven Canadian teams as they enter the final ~25 games of the regular season.

The big 3

Leading the way is Winnipeg, which won its league-high 10th consecutive game last night to reclaim first place overall from the Washington Capitals. Mark Scheifele’s overtime goal — his 329th for Winnipeg, breaking Ilya Kovalchuk’s Thrashers/Jets franchise record — gave him 32 on the season, which ranks third in the NHL. Kyle Connor is sixth in goals with 30 and tied for fifth in points with 71. Along with the league’s best record, the Jets (41-14-3) own the top power-play success rate (32.5 per cent) and goal differential (plus-70).

Winnipeg also has the NHL’s best goalie. Connor Hellebuyck leads the league in all the major traditional stats — wins (35), goals-against average (2.04), save percentage (.925) and shutouts (6) — as well as the advanced Goals Saved Above Expected. He’s a virtual lock to win his second straight Vezina Trophy and third of his career, which would be a record for a U.S.-born player, and Hellebuyck might even be in the MVP conversation too.

Toronto (35-20-2) sits fifth overall, holding a one-point edge in the Atlantic Division over the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, who will be without star forward Matthew Tkachuk for a while due to the groin injury that forced the American to watch most of the 4 Nations final from the bench.

While reigning NHL goals champ Auston Matthews still seems bothered by the upper-body injury that has caused him to miss 15 games this season, William Nylander has helped fill the void with 33 goals — second-most in the league. Mitch Marner has also stepped up. The pending free-agent winger is tied with the Jets’ Connor for fifth in the league with 71 points, putting him on pace for his first 100-point season. Marner was fantastic in the 4 Nations final too, setting up Sam Bennett’s game-tying goal and McDavid’s OT winner.

WATCH | Canada celebrates its 4 Nations Face-Off victory:

Politicians of all stripes joined with Canadian fans across the country in social media celebrations of Team Canada’s win over the U.S. in the 4 Nations Face-Off final.

Of course, the Leafs are famous for looking good in the regular season and then flopping in the playoffs. But there’s hope for a different outcome this year as new head coach Craig Berube has shored up the team’s defensive play while Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz supply solid goaltending for a change.

Edmonton (34-19-4) ranks seven overall, thanks largely to the efforts of (this will shock you) McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The latter is running away with the Rocket Richard Trophy with 42 goals — nine more than the second-place Nylander — and his 86 points put Draisaitl just one behind Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the league lead. Despite missing a total of six games due to an early-season ankle injury and a suspension, McDavid ranks fourth with 72 points, including 22 goals.

However, if the defending Western Conference champs are going to catch Vegas for the Pacific Division lead (the Golden Knights are up two points), they might need more from inconsistent goalie Stuart Skinner and talented defenceman Evan Bouchard, whose scoring numbers are down while his defensive play remains shaky.

The other 4

In many ways, Vancouver is going through the season from hell. A feud between its two best forwards, Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, dogged the team until Miller was traded to the Rangers a month ago. But the change hasn’t helped the struggling Pettersson, who has zero goals and only two assists in six games since the deal. Pettersson went pointless in three games for Sweden at the 4 Nations, and it’s now been over a month since his last goal. “He’s not moving his feet,” coach Rick Tocchet said after Sunday’s loss to Utah.

Meanwhile, Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes has missed the last six games with the unspecified injury that kept him out of the 4 Nations, and goalie Thatcher Demko is hurt again after missing the first two months of the season with the unusual knee injury that knocked him out of last year’s playoffs.

The Flames missed the playoffs by 17 points last season, then clearly signalled they were in rebuilding mode by trading No. 1 goalie Jacob Markstrom to New Jersey. But that proved to be a savvy move as young Dustin Wolf, the MVP of the American Hockey League two years ago, sports a 20-11-3 record and a .913 save percentage.

Ottawa gets full marks for resiliency too. The Senators finished 26th overall last year, and they’re big off-season acquisition, goalie Linus Ullmark, missed all of January with an injury. But young forward Tim Stutzle is back to averaging more than a point per game, and Ottawa (29-24-4) is clinging to the final wild-card spot in the East, just ahead of Columbus, Boston and the Rangers.

One area of concern for the Sens: forward Brady Tkachuk left early from today’s practice due to the injury that bothered him at the 4 Nations. He said he might sit out Wednesday’s game against Winnipeg so he can come back full-steam and “be an animal the next 25 games.”

At the moment, Montreal (26-26-5) is the only Canadian team we can probably rule out of the playoff race. The Habs are five points out of a spot in the East, which may not sound like a lot. But they’ve lost eight of their last 10 and there are four teams between them and Ottawa. That leaves the Habs with less than a five per cent chance of making the playoffs, according to Money Puck.