Will the Premier League get a fifth place in next season’s Champions League?

There will be 36 rather than 32 teams in next season’s rejigged/wrecked Champions League, and two of those extra places will be awarded to the leagues who have been deemed to have performed best in Europe this season.

It’s becoming clearer  which two leagues that might be as we reach the business end of the three European trophies, but second spot in particular is closely contested and could yet go right to the wire. England and Germany are currently level on 16.500 coefficient points with the Premier League for what it’s worth currently edging it on countback. It’s perfectly possible we might not know precisely which countries and therefore teams are going to benefit until after the Champions League final, long after domestic seasons are done and dusted.

The system for working out the co-efficient rating that will decide which league comes out on top is (relatively) simple.

At this stage, we don’t need to worry ourselves about the assorted bonus points for being in the Champions League group stage or topping a Europa League group. That’s all behind us; what matters now is this. Every individual match win is worth two points, whether that’s in the Champions League, Europa League or Conference, and every draw is worth one point.

There is also at this stage an extra bonus point available for reaching the next round of any competition. Champions League and Europa League carry bonus points for reaching quarter-finals, semis and finals, while those bonus points now also kick in at the Conference level for teams who reach the semis and final.

So if you qualify for, say, the Champions League quarter-final by winning both legs of your last-16 clash, you collect five points for your country’s tally: two for each win and a bonus point for reaching the next stage. If you get through with a win and a defeat it’s three points (two for a win, plus the bonus point). And so on.

What that means is that from the quarter-finals onwards there are the same number of remaining points available for any team regardless of which competition they’re in, meaning countries with several teams in Thursday night action are in a potentially advantageous position. It certainly pays to at least have a spread of teams across the three competitions to maximise point-scoring opportunities.

The total number of points accrued by all teams from a particular league are then divided by the total number of teams from that league who began the season in European competition to obtain an average rating that determines the all-important standings.

So taking leaders Italy as an example, their teams have between them amassed 124 points across their European campaigns. They started the season with seven teams in Europe, so 124 divided by seven gives their current average co-efficient of 17.714pts.

This therefore means individual match wins are worth more to the score for a country that had fewer teams involved to begin with; a win for any French side is worth 0.333pts to the final tally because it is two points divided by the six teams they had in contention when the season began, while for England or Spain a two-point win is worth only 0.250pts to the total after it has been divided by eight.

As things currently stand the two teams to benefit from the new system would be Roma (fifth in Serie A) and Borussia Dortmund (fifth in the Bundesliga) but plenty of other teams across Italy, Germany and England in particular will be keeping a keen eye on how this all shakes out.

1) Italy – 18.429pts
Italy’s raft of quarter-finalists in the lower tier tournaments means they should hold on to a top-two spot pretty comfortably despite losing all three of their remaining Champions League teams in the last 16.

The second leg between Roma and Milan will chuck another three guaranteed points in the kitty and gives them at least one semi-finalist, while Atalanta have gone from likely elimination to near certain progress after stunning Liverpool at Anfield. With Fiorentina also favourites to progress after a goalless first leg against Viktoria Plzen, Italy are sitting pretty here. The two Anglo-German quarter-final ties also help the leaders, ensuring their two nearest pursuers will take points off each other rather than the risk of both countries closing what is now an imposing deficit.

Total points: 129
Total teams: Seven
Teams still active: Four
Quarter-finalists: Milan (UEL, 0-1 v Roma), Atalanta (UEL, 3-0 v Liverpool), Roma (UEL, 1-0 v Milan), Fiorentina (UECL, 0-0 v Viktoria Plzen),
Eliminated: Lazio, Napoli, Inter

2) Germany – 16.786pts
Leverkusen’s late goals against West Ham have nudged Germany back above England after only one of the five Premier League teams in action could muster a first-leg lead this week. If Leverkusen and Bayern can finish the job against the Hammers and Arsenal respectively next week, Germany would appear to have a clear advantage in this race.

Total points: 117.5
Total teams: Seven
Teams still active: Three
Quarter-finalists: Bayern Munich (UCL, 2-2 v Arsenal), Borussia Dortmund (UCL, 1-2 v Atletico Madrid), Bayer Leverkusen (UEL, 2-0 v West Ham)
Eliminated: Union Berlin, RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt, Freiburg

3) England – 16.750pts
England have gone from strong favourites for the second spot to looking decidedly vulnerable. Being level on points with Germany was fine when they had weight of numbers on their side, but a raft of disappointing first legs in which only Aston Villa managed a win with Liverpool and West Ham now looking very unlikely to progress has made things distinctly dicey. If Arsenal and West Ham both go out to German opposition next week, England are in trouble.

Total points: 134
Total teams: Eight
Teams still active: Five
Quarter-finalists: Manchester City (UCL, 3-3 v Real Madrid), Arsenal (UCL, 2-2 v Bayern Munich), West Ham (UEL, 0-2 v Bayer Leverkusen), Liverpool, (UEL, 0-3 v Atalanta), Aston Villa (UECL, 2-1 v Lille)
Eliminated: Manchester United, Newcastle, Brighton

4) Spain – 15.063pts
Still only slim chances with only their big three in quarter-final action, but the first-leg results saw five coefficient points secured and all at the expense of the countries around them. Still just about in there, but having all three eggs in the Champions League basket is a problem. Spain’s maximum coefficient total is only 17.687 and even that may well not be enough.

Total points: 120.5
Total teams: Eight
Teams still active: Three
Quarter-finalists: Real Madrid (UCL, 3-3 v Man City),  Barcelona (UCL, 3-2 v PSG), Atletico Madrid (UCL, 2-1 v Borussia Dortmund)
Eliminated: Osasuna, Sevilla, Real Betis, Real Sociedad, Villarreal

5) France – 14.750pts
France required near flawless results and got the opposite. First-leg defeats for all three of their remaining teams means they are pretty much out of contention even if a couple of them do manage to turn it around next week.

Total points: 88.5
Total teams: Six
Teams still active: Three
Quarter-finalists: Paris St-Germain (UCL, 2-3 v Barcelona), Marseille (UEL, 1-2 v Benfica), Lille (UECL, 1-2 v Aston Villa)
Eliminated: Lens, Rennes, Toulouse